wealth in words

the price of peace….the cost of conflict

   “Peace is the virtue of civilization. War is the crime”. Victor Hugo

During this time of economic uncertainty it makes sense more than ever to watch your cents. Looking at the global economy from my financial perspective one must look to history first. Taking a page from the history books I find is the leading formula to predict the outcome of events during a recession. Historically speaking the world has weathered the stormy seas off a recession with a war added. Covid19 being a power player in the factor of the global impact on independent wealth from the start forthwith a war in the Ukraine the impact has directly effected people both domestic and abroad.

the cost of conflict

On a global scale the war in the Ukraine undoubtedly has distraught the world. According to un.org, 10 million Ukrainians have been forced to leave. Four million abroad mostly women and children and 6.5 million within the country. This has directly and  socioeconomic impacted their neighboring countries. Destruction of production facilities, capital flow, key infrastructure damaged and energy cut off entirely to towns within the Ukraine. Due to the sanctions and being cut off financially from the rest of the world Russia will not meet their debt servicing obligations for 2022 into 2023 nor will the Ukraine leaving the country to choose between paying their debt or focusing on the recon structuring efforts.  un.org 

In Europe we are seeing some countries cut funding where it is needed desperately such as education in order to send financial aid to the Ukraine. “Dealing with one crisis damages other important developments”. Journe Hemberg – Finnish Church Aid

However some economists feel this is not yet an economic crisis but rather some turbulence. Disturbing the stock market in every country and derailing any further development from a financial perspective I find it safe to say this is a global economic crisis on the coat tails of a global pandemic. 

what does this mean for other countries

For other countries already impacted by Covid19 which “Undermined human development significantly”, and a historic need for human aid around the world. un.org  Countries already suffering from the pandemic experienced learning loss due to school closures. In Uganda school was closed for 2 years for under developed countries virtual learning is not assessable. Climate change and the pandemic have already weakened food sources and in many countries extreme poverty is on the rise again. Although child mortality rate has decreased even with the growing size of countries. With poverty on the rise girls are more susceptible being that they are forced to drop out of school to work or help at home. We are seeing an increase in child marriages along with teen pregnancy rates higher than before the pandemic.   un.org 

reason why the sanctions against russian have had a global affect

Aside from the stock market and financial trade the sanctions are effecting people both domestically and abroad primarily due to the countries GDP. What is that you ask? The GDP is a countries Gross Domestic Product, that is the product such as refineries, transports and technology. Russia one of the leading exports is crude oil, elements, silicon and germanium primarily used for electronic devices. These elements are used in the manufacturing of semiconductors or chips. Silicon and germanium are primarily used for electronic devices anything computerized like the micro chip. 

During the pandemic we saw a significant decrease of cars here in the US due to the micro chip in cars which controls the electronic system to function properly. The pandemic magnified this shortage primarily due to business and factory closures. Now with sanctions the micro chip being one of Russias biggest exports, has made it impossible to find automobiles let alone purchase or lease a car at a reasonable price. Another tactic was having Russia cut off from using the SWIFT banking system. Russia is left to use the Ruble as the only form of currency available to the government and its citizens. Through currency support spending wealth is significantly limited. This also conveniently halts Russias ability to maneuver around the sanctions imposed. The security cushion Russian authorities built is now entirely out of reach. 

However these consequences are not contained within their boarders. This spills over into Eastern European countries leaving them strongly exposed to the economic despair. These countries depend on Russia for energy, crude oil, aluminum, corn and wheat, migrant workers and financial flow. One Russian company feeling the strain first hand by loosing 18.2 billion in assets. Along with Russian bonds being downgraded to “junk” according to Moody’s and S&P.

             “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it” Winston Churchill

reason behind russias invasion of ukraine

A very famous quote said by many great men varied in words, however, my favorite in particular was said by my personal hero Winston Churchill. Churchill a veteran of the first world war, Prime Minister of Great Britain during the second was renown for his remarkable speeches  and his defiance against the German Reich early on in the second world war. Churchill grasped the fundamental reason of why looking to the past will help one understand the present. The value of knowing the mistakes man has made previously is instrumental in preventing another world war.

For those of you who are a little fuzzy on Russias rationale for invading the Ukraine we must first take a step back in history. To understand the full spectrum surrounding the core purpose Vladimir Putin has for invading and engaging war we must look at past events. 

After the second world war Europe begins the pain staking journey to restore peace, During this time many treaties were written and signed. Beginning with the Paris Peace Treaty on 10 February 1947. This formally ending the war and restoring peace throughout Europe. On 4 April 1949 NATO is established the North Atlantic Treaty Organization made up of 28 European countries and 2 North American. This was to promote democratic values, peace and its values along with the well being of its citizens.

Then the Soviet Union forms The Warsaw Pact. The Warsaw Pact or the Treaty of Friendship provided a unified military command and the systematic ability to strengthen the Soviet hold of other participating countries. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and then the Iron Curtain this treaty dissolved along with the Soviet Union. On 1 November 1993 the European Union is formed in the Netherlands this was to ratify NATO by 12 founding European nations. The EU grew by 1998 to 27 countries many of which were eastern European countries. The EU promoted  freedom, security and justice without borders to regulate asylum and immigration. Russian always felt that they too were Europeans as well. During Yeltsin’s presidency it was his hope and vision to have Russia immersed in the European Union. After he stepped down Vladimir Putin was elected as President with the same hope and to fulfill Yeltsin’s vision by Russia becoming a member of the EU. Unfortunately the EU continued to deny this request but promised not to expand any further eastward in Europe than it already had done.

On September 11, 2001 the United States suffered a staggering life altering event. In 2003 the United States began their invasion of Iraq and the promise to hold those accountable for the tragic events that enfolded on September 11th. During the years between 2000-2005 Russias growing animosity was hard to hide. Moscow saw the United States and NATO as a personal threat to Russias interests and long-term foreign policy which was to be a great power again. To rebuild the economy, lower its deficit, provide jobs, restore trade and Russias natural resources. Along with that Russia wanted to assure their neighbors were in agreeable with Russia on their policies rather than with that of the EU. When the EU grew to include 3 Baltic States and several former Warsaw Pact countries Moscow began to see the European Union and NATO as an expansion of power intruding into their foreign Sovereignty.

putin addresses security conference on western influence in europe

At the 2007 Security Conference in Munich Germany when Vladimir Putin addressed the nations he said “The United States had overstepped its borders in all spheres economic, political and humanitarian and had imposed itself on other states. As a result Russia would carry out as independent with its own foreign policy”. After many failed attempts of finding a common respect for one another Russia felt that all its efforts where in vain. 

Notes taken from the Washington Post: credited for facts; the above three paragraphs and the above quote, by Vladimir Putin.

ukraine and zelensky

Already the conflict in the south and eastern regions of the Ukraine specifically Donbas where the large percent of citizens are Russian, President Putin originally saw this as a peace keeping effort to stop the violence between citizens. Which are historically considered the same. The same language, religion it is just a matter of going from person to person and asking for whom do you identify with Ukraine or Russia? Prominently similar to that of the conflict in the Balkans. Once President Zelensky pushed to be a member of NATO Russia saw this as a direct threat to Russia and its foreign policy. One being even though Russia is a part of Eastern Europe NATO will not accept their bid for being a part of the European Union. This leaves Putin asking if the EU was established after the fall of the Soviet Union and they are no longer the Soviet Union than why is Russia not permitted to be a member of the EU/NATO. Up to this point after watching the criticality acclaimed Putin interviews with Oliver Stone I saw the rational Russia had behind that. However, a country that is so quick to verbally resort to brandishing their vast nuclear weaponry and the consequences the world will see if anyone decides to send aid in the form of soldiers, it has become a clear and obvious answer as to why the European Union denies entry for Russia. Europe simply does not trust Russian foreign policy.

After the 2019 elections in the Ukraine Volodymry Zelensky of Jewish decent born in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine a town in the central part of the country.  In a Russian speaking providence an actor/comedian with no political background at all secures the election with 73 percent of the votes. Zelensky quickly pushes to have the Ukraine voted into NATO promising to cut all ties with Russia. With Ukraines Eastern and southern borders predominantly inside the territory of Russia this allowing NATO to literally reside Russias backyard. With growing unrest within the eastern region of the Ukraine mostly citizens of Russian decent. Vladimir Putin sees this as the final and last blow of disrespect by NATO once again breaking the agreement of not moving further eastward towards Russian borders. Leaving one to think the only reason NATO has any interest in the Ukraine is have close watchful eye on Russia. A puppet for the west, a president for social media evoking profound speeches plagiarized by famous men before his reign. Is Zelenskyy a hero who will be remembered for taking a lone stance against the all powerful Russia. That is for each of us to decide. My question still is why not peace talks long before you lead your citizens like lambs to a slaughter? Arming people with no military training is negligence at it strongest and why would a President knowing and willingly do such a thing? However, I still believe this is a man who persevered defiant to aggression determined to liberate his people from a blatant display of transgression.

One of President Zelensky’s widest shared gripes was that NATO did not provide military weaponry aid in the form of military personnel inside the Ukraine. Being that Ukraine is not a member of NATO there is no policy in effect that offers the support of man power. However every nation did in fact provide billions and millions in funding for military weapons, humanitarian aid with the influx of refugees even going as far as to accept Ukrainian refugees with their pets even without veterinarian papers. Many nations cut important funding for their own countries needs in order to provide Mr. Zelensky with monumental amounts of Euros in order for the Ukraine Soldiers and citizens to continue the battle on the front lines against their Russian counterparts. What more can other nations do without setting off the last and final Third World War, one that would end humanity. We must realize and understand the severity of all the facts. Sending soldiers from other nations into the Ukraine is engaging war thus triggering the all fateful Nuclear War we all fear and our nations leaders know this. They must tread lightly among the waters of nuclear and chemical warfare.

why sending military aid by means of soldiers is a sacrifice countries are not will to take

Sending aid in the form of American military or NATO soldiers to the Ukraine will be a direct engagement of war against Russia. This will be seen as the start of the third world war on European soil, everything NATO and the EU represent is preserving and protecting those citizens within its alliance. 

For over a half a century NATO has kept peace in Europe. With the main objective being, avoid at all costs blood shed on the colossal scale of what was endured from the last two world wars.

price of peace

The final reason perhaps the most important one of all is that now we live in a world were countries like Russia, North Korea, China, Iran and the United States have Nuclear Arsenal enough to take out the world 100 times over. Complete and total devastation of planet Earth. This is just not the price anyone is willing to chance and unfortunately not over unrest in the Donbas providence of the Ukraine, will any political and governing official risk taking that chance on “well maybe they won’t push the nuclear button”. Believe these words, yes they will do just that. No one though Russia would invade and they did. Do not be ignorant these are all signs of a roller coaster ride from Hell with Cybil at the switch. Perhaps the worst cost of all humanity wiped out would be risked for the price of peace.

Yet Russia still has a hand left to play, on April 27, 2022 Russia suspended natural gas trade with two neighboring countries. After Poland and Bulgaria refused to pay their bill in Rubles Russia suspended transporting natural gas to these two countries who have been big supporters of the Ukraine since the start of the war. Russia has also issued several warnings indirectly directed at the United States to stay out of this war. Even after already breaking many of the Geneva Accord laws of war by bombing a church clearly identifying itself as a shelter for children and citizens, bombing apartment buildings, homes, claims of rape and claims of genocide by the Ukrainian government. The Geneva Accord was written after the second world war as a rule book protecting humanity from horrors of war such as genocide, unlawful abuse towards women and children, bombing citizen occupied housing and giving citizens a clear path to exit a war zone. All of these laws where and are now showing signs of proof have been broken by the Russian military.

what to expect moving forward

We should not expect inflation to go down soon or at all for that matter. Expect moving forward preparing for rocky financial times is imminent. Expect similar times ahead to those of during the pandemic. Expect the stock market to go up and down as if it where on a ride at Disney Land. Leave your investments where they are and do not panic. Eventually the market will level out however do not plan for this any time soon. Looking forward, pray, for the storm to settle,  “be at peace while at war”. Leo Tolstoy Bring economic and financial stability back to every country while respecting the borders of those indifferent to the way other countries choose to live.

  “All violent reforms deserve censure, because they can never do away with evil as long as men are what they are; and, therefore it is part of wisdom not to employ violence”.   Leo Tolstoy – War and Peace

Words from the author

As the daughter of a United States Air force pilot who fought against the German aggression in WW2 who later became a Professor of History at Calvin College, the step-daughter of a Ukrainian born immigrant and veteran of the Vietnam War, sister to three beautiful Ukrainian sisters and the wife of a Serbian born immigrant. I have witnessed first hand the war in the Balkans during the 1990’s and the direct despair it had on my husband and our family. This piece does not provoke any side I stand for but rather a historical and financial look into the conflict and history in which sighted the road both sides took. I wrote this piece to educate those on financial and economic instability post pandemic and war has created. It is simply with hope for peace to prevail for all who have endured the tribulation of war.  As an orthodox christian I believe the killing of innocent civilians is wrong in any scenario. I have many  beautiful Ukrainian and Russian friends both citizens and  immigrated here in the United States. As the owner of a magnificent Russian Mainecoon cat, my beloved Blu, I have relationships with Mainecoon breeders both in Russia and the Ukraine.

My final thought is this, nothing is ever resolved by use of violence, but rather, give rise to words. There is wealth in words, let words be used as ammunition, let words show our intellect,  let words be the resolution,  let words pave a way to peace.  DK Cucko

ukrainian citizen depicts war through his camara lens, worthy of Pulitzer Prize 

Before I begin I ask for everyone to take a moment and go to Alexander Bilous Facebook page. Alexander lives in Kyiv, Ukraine and works at Good Guys Go Grind a record company that produces music for the genre Grind core and its musician. Alexander took pictures of the devastation in Kyiv and its surrounding areas worthy of the prestigious Pulitzer Prize in Journalism for his  depiction of war through the lens of a Ukrainian citizen. Please note viewer discretion is advised being that some pictures are extremely difficult to view. Music being my first love as a classically trained pianist even in the eyes of war music still prevails even through the lens of a camera. 

Credits to: un.org. The Washington Post,  Bloomberg News, Quotes by Victor Hugo, Winston Churchill, Leo Tolstoy